{"id":19865,"date":"2026-10-07T10:24:06","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T05:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/?p=19865"},"modified":"2026-10-07T10:24:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T05:24:06","slug":"caspian-sea-dries-up-northern-regio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/2026\/10\/07\/caspian-sea-dries-up-northern-regio\/","title":{"rendered":"Caspian Sea Dries Up: Northern Region Faces Aral Sea-Like Disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"

Caspian Sea Dries Up: Northern Region Faces Aral Sea-Like Disaster<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Climate change and human water use drive a dramatic fall in water levels, exposing new islands and threatening wildlife<\/p>\n

ASTANA: (Web Desk) \u00a0Parts of the northern Caspian Sea could face an Aral Sea-like environmental crisis as rapidly falling water levels expose new islands, transform coastal ecosystems and threaten wildlife, scientists and environmentalists have warned.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Caspian Sea<\/a>, the world\u2019s largest inland body of water, has been shrinking for decades, with the shallow northern and northeastern sections along Kazakhstan\u2019s coast particularly vulnerable to the retreat.<\/p>\n

In recent years, the falling water level has exposed clusters of previously submerged land. Environmentalists recently discovered another small island near Kulaly Island during an aerial survey, adding to a growing number of newly emerged land formations in the region.<\/p>\n

Volunteer environmental activist Daniyar Akimzhanov, who was part of the group that reported the latest discovery, said the island was relatively small but represented a much wider phenomenon.<\/p>\n

He said he had documented several newly exposed islands in the northeastern Caspian over the past four to five years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe one in the photo I sent you is the smallest. There are much bigger new islands,\u201d Akimzhanov said.<\/p>\n

Some of the newly exposed formations stretch for around one kilometre and are 200 to 300 metres wide. Wildlife has already begun colonising some of them.<\/p>\n

Akimzhanov said he had seen a wild boar on one newly formed island, while wolves have also reached some islands by crossing ice during winter.<\/p>\n

The islands generally remain unnamed, while scientists caution that some newly exposed areas may not survive as permanent land formations.<\/p>\n

The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, established in September 2025 on the instructions of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, says the future of the newly exposed areas will depend on seabed topography, waves, wind-driven fluctuations and the continuing movement of the Caspian’s water level.<\/p>\n

Caspian retreat accelerates<\/strong><\/p>\n

The emergence of islands is among the most visible signs of a much larger transformation taking place across the Caspian basin.<\/p>\n

The sea is bordered by Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan, while more than 80 per cent of its river inflow comes from Russia\u2019s Volga River.<\/p>\n

Unlike oceans, the Caspian has no natural outlet. Its water balance depends largely on river inflow and precipitation, while evaporation represents its principal natural loss.<\/p>\n

Hydroclimate scientist Dr Sifan Koriche of the University of Alabama said the basic equation was straightforward: water enters the Caspian through rivers and rainfall and leaves primarily through evaporation.<\/p>\n

Instrumental observations show that water levels in the Kazakh sector fell from -26.82 metres in 1996 to -29.27 metres in 2025, representing a decline of 2.45 metres in three decades.<\/p>\n

The decline has continued.<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, the average level recorded at the Kulaly Island monitoring station reached -29.42 metres in July 2026, the lowest level recorded during the entire study period.<\/p>\n

The northeastern Caspian is especially vulnerable because much of the region is extremely shallow, with depths generally ranging between three and six metres. Its gently sloping seabed means even a relatively modest fall in water levels can push the shoreline back over vast distances.<\/p>\n

The scale of the transformation is already significant. Between 2000 and 2025, the area covered by water in the studied northeastern section declined by approximately 16,384 square kilometres, according to the Kazakh institute.<\/p>\n

Satellite imagery analysed by researchers has also documented substantial changes around Kulaly Island and the Tyuleniy Archipelago between 2021 and 2026.<\/p>\n

Climate change, human activity driving decline<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Caspian has naturally experienced major fluctuations throughout its history. Its water level fell by around three metres between the 1930s and 1977, before rising approximately 2.5 metres over the following two decades.<\/p>\n

Scientists, however, say current changes are increasingly being influenced by climate change and human activity.<\/p>\n

Research has linked much of the recent decline to higher evaporation caused by rising regional temperatures. Reduced precipitation has also played a role.<\/p>\n

At the same time, dams and reservoirs regulate rivers flowing into the Caspian, while water is diverted throughout the basin for irrigation and other human needs.<\/p>\n

Scientists warn that how reservoirs are managed can also influence the volume and timing of water ultimately reaching the sea.<\/p>\n

Caspian seals under growing pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

The retreating sea is creating serious consequences for one of the region\u2019s most distinctive species \u2014 the Caspian seal, which is found nowhere else on Earth.<\/p>\n

The species has suffered a dramatic population collapse over the past century. Its numbers have fallen from roughly one million to an estimated 100,000.<\/p>\n

Researchers say shrinking islands and unstable winter ice are now adding further pressure.<\/p>\n

Seal researcher Assel Baimukanova said the total area of island haul-out sites used by Caspian seals had declined more than 15-fold since 1995.<\/p>\n

In 2021, Baimukanova and fellow researchers from the Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology spent time on a small newly formed island they named New Durnev, where thousands of seals gathered.<\/p>\n

By 2023, the island had expanded considerably and could sometimes be reached by car. It subsequently became connected to the mainland.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor seals, it became inaccessible. No isolated island means no seals,\u201d Baimukanova said.<\/p>\n

The retreat is also forcing seals westward into areas with greater human activity, including fishing, shipping, tourism and oil and gas operations.<\/p>\n

Climate warming poses another major threat. Caspian seals give birth on winter ice, but increasingly warm winters are producing thinner and less stable ice cover.<\/p>\n

Fisheries, ports also at risk<\/strong><\/p>\n

The consequences of the shrinking Caspian extend beyond wildlife.<\/p>\n

Researchers say retreating shallow waters are transforming wetlands and could increasingly disrupt fisheries, navigation, ports and other coastal infrastructure.<\/p>\n

For Kazakhstan in particular, the northeastern Caspian is strategically and economically important. Continued shoreline retreat could require costly adjustments to ports, shipping routes and other infrastructure.<\/p>\n

The broader ecological consequences could also extend across national borders because the Caspian’s water system is shared by all five littoral states.<\/p>\n

Northern Caspian could resemble Aral Sea<\/strong><\/p>\n

Scientists broadly expect the Caspian to continue losing water during the 21st century, although projections vary considerably.<\/p>\n

Koriche’s research indicates that under an intermediate climate scenario, the sea could decline by as much as eight metres by the end of the century.<\/p>\n

Even a five-metre fall, he said, could expose approximately 77,000 square kilometres of seabed in the northern Caspian.<\/p>\n

The entire Caspian is not expected to disappear in the same way as the Aral Sea because its central and southern basins are significantly deeper.<\/p>\n

The northern basin, however, is much more vulnerable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe northern part covers a quarter to one third of the water body. There is a chance that this northern region could face a scenario similar to the Aral Sea,\u201d Koriche said.<\/p>\n

Human water consumption could make the situation substantially worse. According to Koriche’s research, increased water extraction could contribute as much as seven additional metres of decline under some future scenarios.<\/p>\n

Five-nation cooperation urged<\/strong><\/p>\n

Scientists say the future of the Caspian will depend not only on global efforts to slow climate change but also on how the five countries sharing its waters manage the basin.<\/p>\n

Koriche called for stronger coordination on water consumption, particularly in the Volga basin, along with improved monitoring and data sharing.<\/p>\n

The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea has also stressed the need to adapt to a changing coastline. Proposed measures include protecting vulnerable ecosystems, monitoring newly exposed seabed and preparing ports and other infrastructure for continued water-level decline.<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan has proposed an interstate programme aimed at conserving the Caspian’s water resources. The five Caspian states are also working on a 2026\u20132036 action plan under the Tehran Convention, focusing on monitoring, assessing the consequences of sea-level changes and developing adaptation measures.<\/p>\n

The message from scientists is increasingly clear: while the future scale of the Caspian’s decline remains uncertain, the transformation is already underway.<\/p>\n

\u201cEffective solutions are only possible through coordinated action by all five Caspian states,\u201d the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Source: Euro News<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Caspian Sea Dries Up: Northern Region Faces Aral Sea-Like Disaster Climate change and human water use drive a dramatic fall in water levels, exposing new islands and threatening wildlife ASTANA: (Web Desk) \u00a0Parts of the northern Caspian Sea could face an Aral Sea-like environmental crisis as rapidly falling water levels expose new islands, transform coastal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":19866,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,2297,2299],"tags":[3994,2791],"class_list":["post-19865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-latest-news","category-world","tag-caspian-sea","tag-climate-change"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19865"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19867,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19865\/revisions\/19867"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newspulse.com.pk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}