CIA report raises over effectiveness of US naval blockade
Efforts to formally end the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran faced fresh uncertainty on Friday as military tensions escalated once again in the Gulf region. Despite weeks of diplomatic discussions and a fragile ceasefire agreement, both nations exchanged accusations and military actions, raising concerns that the conflict could spiral further out of control.
According to a US intelligence assessment reportedly prepared by the CIA, Iran may be capable of surviving a US naval blockade for several more months without facing immediate economic collapse. The report suggested that Tehran’s economy, although under heavy pressure, still retains enough resilience to continue functioning despite restrictions on trade and shipping routes. A US official familiar with the analysis stated that the blockade might not create severe economic hardship for Iran for another four months, limiting Washington’s leverage in negotiations.
The assessment, first reported by The Washington Post, contradicted public claims from some US officials who argue that sanctions and military pressure are already crippling Iran’s economy. A senior intelligence official dismissed reports about the CIA findings as “false,” insisting that the blockade is causing serious and growing damage to Iran by disrupting trade, reducing government revenue, and weakening the country’s overall economic structure.
Rising Violence in the Strait of Hormuz
At the center of the renewed tensions is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important waterways through which nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies normally pass. Since the war began following joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, Tehran has significantly restricted non-Iranian shipping through the strait.
On Friday, Iranian and US forces reportedly engaged in several sporadic confrontations in the area. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency claimed that clashes took place between Iranian naval units and American vessels patrolling the region. Later, Iran’s Tasnim news agency quoted a military source saying the situation had temporarily calmed, although officials warned that further confrontations remained possible.
The US military confirmed carrying out operations against two vessels allegedly linked to Iran that attempted to enter an Iranian port. According to the Pentagon, a US fighter jet targeted the ships’ smokestacks, forcing both vessels to retreat before reaching port.
The renewed fighting has raised fears of broader instability in the Gulf. Oil markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude prices rising above $101 per barrel. However, prices still remained more than 6% lower compared to the previous week, reflecting uncertainty over whether the conflict would escalate further.
Diplomatic Talks Continue Despite Tensions
While military clashes continued, diplomatic efforts to secure a permanent end to the war remained active. The United States is currently waiting for Iran’s response to a proposal that would officially conclude the conflict before broader negotiations begin on more sensitive issues, particularly Tehran’s nuclear program.
Speaking in Rome, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism, telling reporters that Washington expected a response from Iran soon.
“We should know something today,” Rubio said. “We’re expecting a response from them.”
However, by late Friday afternoon in Washington — just before midnight in Tehran — Iranian officials had still not provided a formal answer. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the government was continuing to evaluate the proposal carefully.
UAE Targeted Again
The conflict also expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates announced that its air defense systems intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran on Friday. Authorities said three people suffered moderate injuries during the attacks.
Iran has repeatedly targeted Gulf states hosting US military bases throughout the conflict, including the UAE and other regional allies of Washington. Emirati officials described this latest strike as a “major escalation,” especially after US President Donald Trump recently announced “Project Freedom,” a military operation designed to escort commercial ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump temporarily suspended the operation after 48 hours, but tensions have continued to rise.
Iran Accuses US of Violating Ceasefire
Iranian officials accused the United States of violating the ceasefire agreement that had largely remained in place since April 7. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi strongly criticized Washington’s actions, saying the US repeatedly chooses military escalation over diplomacy.
“Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure,” Araqchi said Friday.
Iran’s Mehr news agency also reported that one crew member was killed, ten others wounded, and four people missing after what it described as a US Navy attack on an Iranian commercial vessel late Thursday night.
Meanwhile, Rubio questioned why some US allies, particularly Italy and European nations, had not more strongly supported Washington’s efforts to secure international shipping routes.
“Are you going to normalize a country claiming to control an international waterway?” Rubio asked after meeting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. “Because if you normalize that, you’ve set a precedent that could be repeated elsewhere around the world.”
New US Sanctions on Iran
Alongside military and diplomatic pressure, the United States also intensified economic measures against Tehran. On Friday, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions against ten individuals and companies accused of helping Iran’s military obtain weapons materials and components used in the production of Shahed drones.
Several of the sanctioned entities are based in China and Hong Kong, highlighting growing international concern over foreign support networks assisting Iran’s defense industry.
The Treasury Department said the sanctions are intended to prevent Iran from rebuilding its military production capabilities and expanding its influence abroad. Officials also warned that foreign financial institutions involved in supporting Iranian trade — including Chinese “teapot” oil refineries — could face secondary sanctions from Washington.
The sanctions announcement comes just days before Trump is expected to travel to China for a high-level meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where Iran and regional security issues are likely to be major topics of discussion.
Global Concerns Growing
The continuing instability in the Gulf has alarmed governments and financial markets worldwide. Analysts warn that any major disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact global energy supplies, fuel prices, and international trade.
Although diplomatic channels remain open, the latest violence demonstrates how fragile the ceasefire remains. With both sides continuing military operations while negotiating behind the scenes, the risk of a wider regional conflict remains dangerously high.
Source: Reuters